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Geelong’s Armstrong Creek growth area near Marshall. Picture: Alan Barber
Geelong’s building pipeline has climbed back towards its 2022 peak, with approvals for new homes up 34 per cent in the year to August, according to KPMG’s analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics figures. About 4,000 homes are now in the pipeline, against a backdrop of strong population growth, job opportunities and lifestyle appeal. The figures describe approvals, which mark a project’s permission to proceed; they don’t show how many homes have reached a construction site or been completed. That distinction matters in a market where building costs, labour availability and financing conditions can all slow the passage from approval to delivery.
For Geelong, the rise signals renewed confidence in the city’s capacity to attract residents and development. But the approval tally alone can’t settle whether supply is keeping pace with demand. The location and type of homes, along with the speed at which projects are built, will shape how much practical relief the pipeline offers to buyers and renters.
Greenfield suburbs dominate approvals
The increase is concentrated in a small group of growth areas. Lara, Charlemont, Armstrong Creek, Mount Duneed and Ocean Grove together accounted for about 60 per cent of dwelling approvals across the region in 2026. Portarlington, Torquay and Corio also recorded substantial approval numbers. This concentration reflects where large areas of land are available for development, but it also means the region’s growth is being channelled into a limited number of communities.
Lara has moved ahead of Armstrong Creek, Charlemont and Mount Duneed to become Geelong’s leading location for approvals. KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley says the shift reflects the relative feasibility of building in greenfield areas, where land supply and infrastructure investment support new housing more readily than inner-city sites. The comparison helps explain why approvals can rise even while construction remains difficult: developers have more room to plan projects where land can be assembled and serviced. The concentration also puts pressure on the timely delivery of community infrastructure.
Housing growth brings practical needs with it. New residents rely on local services and transport, while a growing population also raises demand for schools, shops and other community facilities. The source figures don’t establish whether those services are keeping pace, but the geography of approvals makes infrastructure timing a central question for the suburbs taking the largest share of new homes.
Rawnsley says elevated construction costs, labour shortages and interest rates continue to weigh on building activity, making the approval increase a sign of confidence in Geelong’s longer-term growth. He argues that keeping approvals steady matters for both housing supply and affordability as the population expands. That confidence deserves some qualification: an approval is an early step, and the costs that constrain builders can still determine whether a project proceeds on its planned schedule.
KPGM urban economist Terry Rawnsley.
“The focus now needs to be on ensuring approved projects can progress through to construction and completion, so that new housing supply is delivered to the market as quickly as possible,” Rawnsley said.
That is the test behind the headline figure. Approvals create a queue of potential supply, but the queue only helps households once homes are built and available. If you're working in this space, the distinction between a strong pipeline and a strong delivery rate is the one to watch.
Affordability shapes what gets built
Geelong competes with growth markets such as Melton and Wyndham on price, while offering access to beaches and work commutes, Rawnsley said. Yet affordability remains a constraint: more townhouse construction in greenfield locations points to buyers seeking ways to manage the cost of land and a new home. Townhouses can make more efficient use of a site than detached homes, although the article provides no breakdown of how many approvals fall into each category.
That shift in housing form says something about the limits buyers face. When land and construction costs combine to push up the price of a traditional house-and-land package, a smaller footprint can widen the range of options available. It won’t make every project affordable, and the mix still depends on what land costs and what buyers can pay.
Villawood Properties has launched a new display village at its Armstrong Mount Duneed community. The Whites Rd village will host 32 new homes from 19 builders.
Metricon regional west regional manager Dion Planken links the stronger approval figures to sales momentum late last year and early this year, through March. The resulting pipeline across Geelong, Ballarat and Warrnambool is still translating into site starts, he said. But established homes at lower prices are now the building industry’s strongest competitor. That comparison is a reminder that new construction competes with the existing housing stock, where buyers may find a lower entry price without waiting for a build to finish.
Planken also pointed to the affordable housing program and a rise in medium-density projects as contributors to approvals. With Geelong’s population growing at 2.2 per cent a year, he said, the added supply is needed. Builders are hearing from buyers seeking house-and-land packages around $650,000 to $680,000, although the size of the available block affects whether that price can be achieved. Land values remain relatively high compared with Melbourne’s outer suburbs.
The price range gives a useful indication of what some buyers are asking for, but it shouldn’t be read as a typical price for every package or suburb. Block size changes the equation, as do land values, and a target price can become harder to meet as those inputs rise. (And this is the part most people overlook.) The location and dimensions of a block can shape affordability as directly as the advertised package price.
Builders therefore face a two-sided challenge: they need to convert approvals into homes while matching what households can afford. Medium-density development may help expand choice, but its contribution depends on projects progressing and buyers accepting the housing forms on offer. The numbers here are encouraging, though the practical test is whether the finished stock meets local budgets.
What the pipeline means for Geelong
The next measure of progress will be whether approved projects turn into completed homes. Geelong’s approvals are nearing boom-era levels, but the mix of locations and housing types shows how tightly delivery is tied to land costs, infrastructure and buyers’ budgets. This is more significant than it looks: a higher approval count can point to confidence, but it can’t by itself show that households will find homes at prices they can manage.
For residents and the building sector, the coming period will be judged by delivery. The pipeline gives Geelong a base of potential supply as its population grows, while the concentration in greenfield areas raises questions about how quickly those communities can support new residents. The figures offer a reason for confidence, with a clear condition attached: approvals need to become completed homes.
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