A buyer’s market, with a steep price of entry
Today’s housing market gives buyers unusual negotiating power, but high costs and economic uncertainty make that advantage hard to use. Sellers outnumber buyers by 71%, according to the article’s key figures. If you can afford to buy and expect your finances to hold up, this may be an opportunity. The numbers don’t make it the right move for everyone.
- Buyers have significant leverage in what the article describes as the strongest buyer’s market on record.
- Mortgage rates are high and volatile amid conflict in the Middle East and its effects on oil prices, bond markets and inflation.
- Near-record housing costs, anxiety about artificial intelligence, a difficult job market and broader economic uncertainty are keeping many consumers cautious.
The fall buying season is winding down, though in many places the busy market never really arrived. Following a very slow 2025, 2026 has brought the same combination: few sales, limited listings and monthly housing costs that remain painfully high.
Mortgage rates have stayed above 7% for more than two months. The article links that rise to prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has affected oil prices, inflation and bond markets. Global economic volatility, mounting AI fears and tariff uncertainty are also unsettling investors and households. Together, those pressures are helping keep mortgage rates high and buyers on the sidelines.
So should you buy now or wait? The answer depends less on a national market headline than on your own budget, job security and plans. Conditions also vary sharply from one city to another.
Redfin’s chief economist on buying now
“Now is a good time to buy a home, if you can afford it. High costs are keeping many home buyers on the sidelines, giving those who remain much more leverage to negotiate. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East, elevated mortgage rates, and a volatile economy are making everyone wary, and conditions vary widely from one housing market to the next. Buyers who are serious about making an offer should talk to a local agent, understand their market dynamics, and make sure they’re confident in their finances and future income.” — Daryl Fairweather, Redfin Chief Economist.
Prices are easing, but affordability remains a problem
The median U.S. sale price is $388,634, down 0.4% year over year. That’s the first annual decline in more than two years, a notable shift after a long stretch of rising prices.
Many buyers are waiting for lower prices, while sellers hold out for better offers. That standoff has added to inventory as both sides wait for activity to pick up. Prices have stayed elevated, but buyers with more resources have room to negotiate—especially the ultra-wealthy.
Price growth has slowed during a long, uneven market reset. Since 2025, home prices have risen about 1% year over year, compared with roughly 7% from 2012 to early 2020. Redfin predicts affordability will improve over time if wages grow faster than home prices and inflation. That’s a forecast, though, and it doesn’t make today’s monthly payment easier.
>> Read: Redfin’s Weekly Economic Breakdown
Mortgage rates are high and unsettled
As of November 3, the weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.3%. That was unchanged from the previous week, but far above levels earlier in the year.
“Mortgage rates have skyrocketed since March almost entirely because of the conflict in the Middle East and its effects on global energy prices, inflation, and bond yields,” said Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin. “As oil prices have shot up and inflation fears have grown, interest rates and investor skittishness have risen in tandem. Heavy AI investment and fears are playing a role, too. Time will tell how these factors will ultimately impact the U.S. economy and housing market, but so far it has put significant upward pressure on mortgage rates and housing costs, leaving buyers and sellers in a bind.”
The labor market has been volatile amid economic headwinds. Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again by the end of 2027, which could push mortgage rates higher still. Before March, rates had been between 6.1% and 6.3%.
>> Read: U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years
What a rate change does to your payment
A mortgage rate translates directly into monthly housing costs: a higher rate means a larger payment. Even a modest decline can save tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan. You can compare payment scenarios with Redfin’s Mortgage Calculator.
Buyers have more room to negotiate, depending on where they shop
The market strongly favors buyers overall. Inventory has recovered from its post-pandemic low, particularly across the Sun Belt, giving the smaller pool of active buyers more negotiating power. But the national picture can hide local competition: supply remains tight in parts of the Midwest and East Coast, where sellers still hold the advantage and prices are rising.
High costs have pushed many buyers out of the market and held down sales. Buyers who can still afford to act may have room to ask for concessions.
Listings are building up
More than 1.5 million homes are for sale. That’s still a historically low total, but it’s the highest monthly level since the pandemic. Rising supply is a main reason buyers have gained leverage, including the ability to seek concessions. Active listings, new listings and total inventory have all trended upward since mid-2023.
Listings are accumulating because a larger share of sellers are putting homes up for sale than buyers are purchasing them. The gap is especially pronounced in disaster-prone parts of Florida. Supply has shifted during the year as sellers respond to demand—some withdraw their homes, while others press ahead in hopes of finding a buyer.
Buyer demand is weakening
Years of waiting for affordability to improve have left sellers outnumbering buyers across much of the country. Now, as economic uncertainty grows, demand is slipping further. Fewer buyers are touring homes, sales are at their lowest level in years, more contracts are falling apart, and most listings have been on the market for two months.
There is a sign that sellers are adjusting: the typical asking price recently fell to its lowest level in a year. That suggests more owners are tempering their expectations instead of pricing as if it were 2021. If your budget is ready, softer asking prices and less competition could create an opening.
Buyer leverage is strongest in Sun Belt cities, where new construction has helped swell supply. Austin recently became the slowest major housing market in America. Yet competition remains intense elsewhere. In New York metros such as Rochester and Buffalo, demand for affordable homes continues to lift prices and favor sellers. The Bay Area has also gained popularity amid the AI boom, as have some parts of the Midwest.
>> Read: NYC Suburbs and the Bay Area Are the Most Competitive Housing Markets
Buying when the economy feels uncertain
Tariffs, economic swings and unpredictable mortgage rates have made many prospective buyers hesitant. The economists’ practical guidance is straightforward: make sure the purchase can withstand a change in circumstances.
- Keep to a budget you can sustain. This is a poor moment to stretch your finances. Recession odds are lower than they have been, but the economy remains unstable. Keep enough savings to cover mortgage payments if your income changes.
- Negotiate firmly. Buyers have more inventory to choose from, and most homes are selling below asking price. Use that bargaining power.
- Compare mortgage offers. Rates are high and unsettled, so shop across lenders. Ask whether a “float down” option is available if rates fall significantly after you lock.
- Consider selling before buying. If you already own a home, selling first can clarify your budget and reduce the chance of carrying two mortgages.
>> Read: How to Buy, Sell, or Rent a Home Amid Economic Uncertainty
Start with your own readiness
National market trends matter, but they can’t tell you whether buying fits your life. Your financial position and personal circumstances deserve at least as much weight as the direction of prices or rates.
Financial health
Readiness matters more than trying to time the market
Whether buying makes sense starts with your finances. Add up savings, credit score, and debt, then weigh what you can afford against the cost of renting. A home also calls for a cash cushion: ideally, an emergency fund that covers three to six months of expenses, including maintenance and surprises. You can review ways to save for a down payment, credit score considerations, and debt management, then compare what house you can afford with whether renting or buying fits better.
Make the full monthly cost work
A mortgage payment at today’s rates is only part of the budget. Check whether you can comfortably cover monthly payments, property taxes, insurance, and the other costs of owning a home without squeezing out the rest of your life.
Consider how long you’ll stay and where
Buying tends to fit better when you expect to stay in one place for several years. Reliable income matters too: a stable job or another dependable source of income can help you manage financial pressure if prices or mortgage rates climb. If your work or location may change soon, that uncertainty deserves a place in the decision.
Location brings another set of tradeoffs. Check whether a home faces flooding, wildfire, or other climate risks. This deserves more attention as migration patterns shift and insurers raise prices or drop homeowners. The fragment doesn’t quantify how those changes affect any particular buyer, but insurance availability and cost can shape what a home is actually affordable to own.
Match the purchase to your plans and habits
Starting a family, retiring, or relocating could make owning more attractive—or leave you needing to move before buying makes sense. And ownership asks for time as well as money: consider whether you want to handle maintenance, repairs, and property taxes.
>> Read: Am I Ready to Buy a House?
So, is now a good time to buy?
The case for buying now is personal readiness, not a forecast that prices or rates will move in your favor. Rates are unstable, and today’s prices and economic uncertainty make future affordability hard to predict. Waiting for rates to drop could bring more buyers into the market and give sellers room to raise prices. That risk doesn’t make buying right for everyone; it does make waiting a market bet.
If the numbers work and you’re ready to own, start looking for a home. Set your budget, connect with a local agent, and get preapproved for a mortgage so you can act when the right place appears. Buyers may have room to negotiate and secure terms that work for them, but that advantage could shrink as competition grows.
The post Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House? appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More.
